Jerusalem, 28 October, 2026 (TPS-IL) — Soldiers’ votes are expected to reduce the number of seats won by the Arab parties, especially Ra’am, which currently stands at six seats. Those votes could also push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc closer to the coveted 61 mandates out of 120 and control of the Knesset.
Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest in the Knesset this election, while the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot was forecast as the larger parliamentary bloc, according to initial exit polls released Tuesday night.
However, the results published Wednesday evening do not give a final, clear picture of how the seats are divided, because the count of “double envelopes” has not yet begun. The Central Elections Committee estimates that this time there will be some 650,000 to 700,000 double envelopes. It hopes to complete the count and the complex verification process by Friday noon, before the Sabbath begins.
Double envelopes hold the votes of anyone who voted at a polling station other than the one where they are registered. They include soldiers, police officers, prisoners, hospital patients, residents of institutions, voters with disabilities using accessible stations, ballot-committee members and secretaries, and state representatives abroad. About 100 polling stations were set up at Israeli missions around the world. They have closed, and their votes will be counted starting today.
A volume of this size is equivalent to roughly 13 mandates, an unprecedented amount that could reshape the political map entirely and turn a loss into a win, or the reverse. In the previous election, the number of double envelopes was only about 450,000. In that race, these votes caused a direct shift of one seat from the Haredi factions to the anti-Haredi Yisrael Beytenu. Traditionally, the breakdown of double envelopes leans toward the right-wing bloc, because soldiers’ votes tend to go rightward.
Beyond the split between the blocs, the double envelopes carry the last chance for Am Yisrael and The Reservists-Economic party to cross the electoral threshold, which stands at 184,000 votes, because of the historically high turnout.
According to partial figures from the actual vote count, the list of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, The Reservists and The Economic Party, has received about 77,000 votes so far. Am Yisrael, led by Ofer Winter, has received only about 48,000. To reach the required 184,000 votes that comprise 4 seats, 46,000 votes per seat, Hendel and Zelekha are short by about 109,000 votes, while Winter is short by about 137,000.
The double-envelope count does give both parties a built-in advantage, thanks to their direct and focused appeal to those who serve in the military. But for either to pass the threshold, it would need to sweep the IDF polling stations with unprecedented shares of tens of percents of the double envelopes. That is a very difficult scenario statistically, so their votes will most likely remain below the threshold and add to the volume of “wasted votes.”
In addition to the soldiers, some 15,000 evacuees who have not returned to live in their original communities after the October war will also vote with double envelopes, away from home.
