Jerusalem, 20 October, 2026 (TPS-IL) — Tens of thousands of new immigrants could vote in Israel’s October 27 Knesset election for the first time, potentially accounting for slightly more than one seat.
Immigration has slowed since the 2022 surge, with approximately 31,000 arrivals in 2024, 21,900 in 2025, and 20,000 so far in 2026. Assuming 70% to 75% are adults, roughly 50,000 to 55,000 could be eligible voters, representing 8% to 9% of the 618,000 first-time voters on the current roll.
Assuming an overall voter turnout of 75% and based on the latest voter registry data for the 26th Knesset election, a Knesset seat will be worth approximately 44,500 votes, while the electoral threshold will stand at approximately 173,000 votes.
Likud reserves a national-list spot for an immigrant representative, while Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu draws heavily on the former Soviet immigrant community. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party advocates bringing one million immigrants to Israel within a decade.
