Jerusalem, 28 October, 2026 (TPS-IL) — Prediction markets dramatically reversed their outlook on Israel’s election overnight, with more than $70 million wagered on Polymarket.
Before polls opened, Polymarket gave Gadi Eisenkot a 56% chance of becoming prime minister, compared with just 27.5% for Benjamin Netanyahu. Kalshi showed similar odds. Eisenkot’s Yashar! party also had a 73.5% chance of becoming the Knesset’s largest faction.
Following the release of exit polls, the market shifted sharply toward Netanyahu. His chances of remaining prime minister rose to 48%, while Eisenkot’s fell to 33.5%. By Wednesday morning, Polymarket priced Likud at 99% to emerge as the largest party.
Bettors correctly anticipated turnout of at least 74%; participation ultimately reached 77.7%, the highest at that point on election day since 1999.
