Jerusalem, 23 October, 2026 (TPS-IL) — Final election polls published Friday before a ban on new surveys take effect showed a divided race, with three polls giving opposition party Yashar! a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, while two others projected a Likud advantage of up to 10 seats.
The ban on publishing new election polls takes effect at 11:59 p.m. Friday, under rules set by the Central Elections Committee. Exit polls are also prohibited until voting stations close.
Five final polls published by Israeli news outlets showed substantial differences in the projected strength of the two leading parties. Channel 13, Walla and Ma’agar Mohot put Yashar! ahead of Likud, while Direct Polls and Channel 14 projected Likud in the lead.
However, the projected seat totals do not necessarily indicate that either political bloc has a clear path to forming a government, which depends on the overall distribution of seats and the ability to secure sufficient support in the Knesset.
In the Channel 13 poll, conducted with the Panel Project among 1,084 respondents, Yashar! led Likud by 20 seats to 19. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party was projected to win 14 seats, followed by The Democrats with 10. The Arab Joint List was projected to secure nine seats, while Shas, Otzma Yehudit and Ra’am were among the other parties forecast to enter the Knesset.
Walla’s poll, conducted by Dr. Menachem Lazar among 601 respondents, gave Yashar! a four-seat lead over Likud, 23 to 19. Beyachad was projected to win 14 seats and The Democrats nine. The Reservists-Economic Party was forecast to win four seats, just above Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold — the minimum share of valid votes a party must receive to enter the Knesset.
The Ma’agar Mohot poll, conducted by Prof. Yitzhak Katz among 2,026 respondents, put Yashar! at 21 seats and Likud at 19. Beyachad was projected to win 14 seats, while The Democrats and Otzma Yehudit were forecast to take nine and eight seats, respectively. The survey also gave Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael five seats and the Reservists-Economic Party four.
The two polls favoring Likud projected a wider gap. Direct Polls, headed by Tzuriel Sharon, gave Likud 26 seats against 20 for Yashar!, with Beyachad projected to win 12. Channel 14’s poll, conducted by Next Data with Shlomo Filber among 2,116 respondents, put Likud at 30 seats and Yashar! at 20. Shas and Beyachad were each projected to win nine seats.
Smaller parties faced greater uncertainty. The Reservists-Economic Party reached four seats in the Walla and Ma’agar Mohot polls, while its prospects were less certain in the other surveys. Amcha Yisrael was projected to win five seats in the Ma’agar Mohot poll but did not reach the threshold in the other surveys.
The Arab Joint List was projected to win between seven and nine seats across the five polls, while Ra’am ranged from five to six. Together, the two parties were projected to hold as many as 14 seats in some surveys.
