Jerusalem, 15 October, 2026 (TPS-IL) — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost ground on Polymarket, the online prediction market, as former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot takes the lead in the contest over who will become Israel’s next prime minister.
As of October 15, Polymarket priced Eisenkot’s chances at approximately 47%–49%, compared with about 28% for Netanyahu. Naftali Bennett trailed at roughly 14%–16%. The figures reflect traders’ expectations, not the results of an opinion poll.
The shift comes as Israel’s October 27 Knesset election approaches and political competition intensifies. Polymarket contracts move with trading activity, meaning the percentages can change quickly as users buy and sell positions.
The market’s ranking does not determine who will win the most seats or who will ultimately assemble a governing coalition.
